Monthly Archive for May, 2010

Data is king – part 1


I was recently involved in a study of broadband services in rural areas involving both a study and a survey of businesses. The whole process threw up a fascinating insight into the problem of developing a useful and targeted broadband policy.

The received wisdom in this area was that a number of small towns were poorly served by broadband and the survey of local businesses largely supported this view. However it was strongly contradicted by the mapping exercise – this suggested quite the opposite. In an attempt to reconcile the difference, it was much easier to check the cold, hard data than to suggest to businesses that they might be mistaken, so we looked at the logic of the data – a town in question was a tight, nuclear market town and had its own telephone exchange at its centre which supported the data in pointing to a good broadband service. A line check on each of the business lines further supported the data, and finally a software speed checker corroborated the data. There remained little scope to support the business communities belief that they were poorly served by broadband.

So what was going on? A theory supported up by a conversation I had with a professional pollster ran along these lines:

Defined market towns tend to build up their own support structures which can lead to the community becoming reliant on a narrow and possibly isolated pool of expert advice; the more esoteric and scarce the skill, the greater the scope for that advice to be of less than the highest quality. Here a respected opinion can become the received wisdom and if this wisdom is proffered by a local IT company that isn’t, shall we say, as technically adept as perhaps it might be, then a local mythology can easily develop.

This mythology can then be readily communicated using the more effective mechanisms of a tight, well structured community giving a wider voice to the views of the town.

Contrast this with more sparsely populated areas where people tend to travel further to plug into support networks and different people may seek support in different directions. This is more likely to create a richer, more diverse advice network where myths are more readily challenged.

More sparsely populated communities are perhaps also more used to poorer infrastructure, and may have less effective communication channels. As a result, sparsely populated rural areas – relative to small towns – may under report their broadband problems.

I think the lesson from this is that while the narrative of communities is critical to developing a broadband policy in rural areas, it should be used to add colour and to personalise cold, empirical data. That the nature of the problem should be based on facts, while the narrative gives voice to the impact of that problem.

As the shape of the digital divide hardens, with urban areas set for “superfast” broadband while rural area stay pretty much as they are, the debate is increasingly becoming emotive – and rightly so. During this time its critical that the interventions, however, can be targeted on those of greatest need and not necessarily those with the greatest voice.

In part two I’ll start to look at how the data can be used to support a local narrative – to keep the problem defined technically, but giving a stronger voice to the people and business suffering from poor infrastructure.

Developing an X mentality


The first network manager I worked for, a little over 20 years ago, explained to me that there are two kinds of developers:

  • Considerate, nice people who care about the smooth running of his network
  • X-windows developers

X-windows was notorious because the developers went about creating an environment ideally suited to their users needs – and they went about it without compromise. An example of this uncompromising approach was the mouse pointer – as it tracked its way across the screen, it was generated by the server hosting the applications regardless of where it was, regardless of whether the server was your machine or in Hong Kong, New York, or at the end of a dial-up connection. X-windows was a network hog.

Two decades later, the principal remains but the analogy has moved on – today network managers cite the BBC’s iPlayer rather than X-windows – but without this pressure from developers, who after all are closer to people’s needs than most network engineers, networks wouldn’t evolve. And networks that don’t evolve don’t require R&D budgets or upgrade paths – without X-windows and the iPlayer, network managers would have very limited budgets.

It this unwritten symbiosis that has made networking the hidden third partner in Moore’s Law. Its well recognised that an elastic cycle between chip manufacturers and software developers continually refreshed demand, but networking has long been a partner in this cycle. And since the advent of broadband, its come of age as a full partner in the cycle – but that comes with responsibilities.

The growing availability of broadband created the platform for Skype and YouTube. This created momentum which is now overshooting – the elasticity in the cycle which keeps everyone busy. The BBC’s iPlayer in HD and the increasing demands of gaming networks like Xbox Live are creating demand for more and better bandwidth. The developers have fulfilled their responsibility in creating demand for future broadband; its now the turn of the network operators to rise to the challenge.

And if they don’t? If the cycle gets broken? Simple – developers will look for other challenges or markets which are able to invest, local demand for broadband will plateau and interest will wane. The developer community is a lot more fluid and mobile than telecoms networks, and it will find places which are able to nourish it.

The biggest risk to the UK isn’t the lack of broadband investment in itself but the impact a sterile and sluggish infrastructure will have on the creative industries. We need to boast of our X-developer mindset not punish it for being unreasonable.

Virgin virgin territory


I received a hand-delivered letter from Virgin Media this week:

“Dear Occupier ….. Amazing HD with no extra monthly fee - Guaranteed to be in your home before the world cup.”

Fantastic I thought, knowing that there is a Virgin street cabinet within 100m of my home and have been told in the past that we can’t get services – since the postman delivered the letter, and he knows about postcodes, the in-fill programme must be heading my way. So I wandered of to their website, put in the URL the letter said to use:

http://www.virginmedia.com/3for18/

Nothing – blank

(UPDATE: The website page now appears to be working but wasn’t at the time the leafleting campaign was active)

So I entered my postcode on their main site and:

“You’re not in a optic area, but can still get our brilliant broadband down your phone line.”

I know I’m not in a fibre optic area but what that has got to do with Virgin’s HFC coax service is beyond me – why do they continue to insist on calling a cable service fibre? They have a great offering – why mislead people? I don’t really care overly whether a company uses coax, fibre or wet string if they can deliver a 50 – 100 – 200 Mbps service but I don’t like being misled.

The upshot is that it seems Virgin just lazily blanketed an area with junk mail which would generally appreciate Virgin’s interest, an area which knows cable services run along the road, yet they had no intention of getting their shovels out.

Message to Mark Davidson, Executive Director of Customer Care: If you can’t learn to target customers that you are willing to connect now and be straight about what it is you’re promising, when you start your in-fill programme the rest of us won’t believe you.

A final third parliament


As we enter the final hours of the general , I thought I’d have a bit of fun and see what a Final Third Parliament might look like.

Seats are electable if they are within the 33% of constituencies in Great Britain (apologies to NI – I didn’t have the data) least likely to see investment in next generation broadband according to the DCLG model. To make it partisan, I’ve used the results from the 2005 general election as, like eveyone else, I’ve no idea what might happen on Thursday.

While the Conservatives hold power over the Final Third Parliament, they fall short of an overall majority. On the ground, Scotland and Wales feature heavily: (click here for an interactive map – click on a constituency to see the % of red areas not likely to see investment)

The Constituencies without hope of NGA


The release of the Ordinance Survey data allowed me to play around with the Department for Communities & Local Government (DCLG) data on where they believe next generation broadband is most likely to appear. Here’s my league table of the top 25 Parliamentary Constituencies least likely to see investment in broadband:

ConstituencyRedAmberGreen
Dwyfor Meirionnydd Co Const100.00%0.00%0.00%
Kingston upon Hull East Boro Const100.00%0.00%0.00%
Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle Boro Const100.00%0.00%0.00%
Na h-Eileanan an Iar Co Const100.00%0.00%0.00%
Haltemprice and Howden Co Const96.77%3.23%0.00%
Beverley and Holderness Co Const95.74%4.26%0.00%
Central Devon Co Const95.24%4.76%0.00%
Montgomeryshire Co Const95.00%5.00%0.00%
Kingston upon Hull North Boro Const94.29%5.71%0.00%
Berwick-upon-Tweed Co Const93.55%6.45%0.00%
North Cornwall Co Const89.66%10.34%0.00%
North Norfolk Co Const89.47%10.53%0.00%
Derbyshire Dales Co Const88.89%11.11%0.00%
Harwich and North Essex Co Const88.24%11.76%0.00%
Thirsk and Malton Co Const88.24%11.76%0.00%
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale Co Const88.00%12.00%0.00%
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Co Const87.50%12.50%0.00%
Delyn Co Const87.50%12.50%0.00%
Ynys Mon Co Const87.50%12.50%0.00%
North Herefordshire Co Const87.10%12.90%0.00%
Ross, Skye and Lochaber Co Const86.96%13.04%0.00%
Forest of Dean Co Const86.84%13.16%0.00%
Louth and Horncastle Co Const86.84%10.53%2.63%
Ludlow Co Const85.71%14.29%0.00%
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire Co Const84.38%15.63%0.00%

The Red, Amber, Green columns are the percentage of each constituency unlikely, possibly, or probably a target for investment in “superfast” broadband.

There are, according to the DCLG model, 56 constituencies where they don’t expect any investment including the Speaker’s constituency in Buckingham. The leaders of the three main parties do better:

  • Gordon Brown – 50% of his Kirkcaldy constituency is likely to see investment
  • David Cameron – 55% of his Witney constituency is likely to see investment but the largely rural areas outside the market town won’t
  • Nick Clegg – 90% of his Sheffield constituency is likely to see investment, not least through the Digital Region project

As for the candidates who may be responsible for digital policy after the :

  • Stephen Timms serves one the hottest broadband constituencies in the UK – East Ham is 100% Green
  • Jeremy Hunt and Ed Vaizey’s Surrey and Oxfordshire constituencies are both good in parts but rural areas mean broadband have’s and have not’s
  • Lynne Featherstone, chair of the Lib Dems Technology Board, serves another hot broadband area – Wood Green in London is 100% Green

Other names of note on the list include:

  • Social media convert John Presctott and Home Secretary, Alan Johnson appear at 2 and 3 on the list of notspots due to the peculiarity of Hull
  • East Yorkshire Tory MP and civil liberties campaigner, David Davis is 5th on the list with just 3% of his constituency possibly a target of investment
  • Liberal cheeky-boy Lembit Opik and past leader Charles Kennedy are high on the list because they serve rural areas of Wales and Scotland
  • Alex Salmond, leader of the SNP’s (who don’t mention broadband in their ) serves the 27th least popular target for broadband investment
  • And leader of Plaid in Westminster, Elfyn Llwyd tops the list of NGA notpsots in the DCLG model as the constituency least likely to see broadband investment

To see how your constituency fairs, download the full list here in CSV format.

Think broadband’s important for the next Government? Click here for a quick breakdown of the main parties views on technology.

Dwyfor Meirionnydd Co Const100.00%0.00%0.00%
Kingston upon Hull East Boro Const100.00%0.00%0.00%
Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle Boro Const100.00%0.00%0.00%
Na h-Eileanan an Iar Co Const100.00%0.00%0.00%
Haltemprice and Howden Co Const96.77%3.23%0.00%
Beverley and Holderness Co Const95.74%4.26%0.00%
Central Devon Co Const95.24%4.76%0.00%
Montgomeryshire Co Const95.00%5.00%0.00%
Kingston upon Hull North Boro Const94.29%5.71%0.00%
Berwick-upon-Tweed Co Const93.55%6.45%0.00%
North Cornwall Co Const89.66%10.34%0.00%
North Norfolk Co Const89.47%10.53%0.00%
Derbyshire Dales Co Const88.89%11.11%0.00%
Harwich and North Essex Co Const88.24%11.76%0.00%
Thirsk and Malton Co Const88.24%11.76%0.00%
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale Co Const88.00%12.00%0.00%
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Co Const87.50%12.50%0.00%
Delyn Co Const87.50%12.50%0.00%
Ynys Mon Co Const87.50%12.50%0.00%
North Herefordshire Co Const87.10%12.90%0.00%
Ross, Skye and Lochaber Co Const86.96%13.04%0.00%
Forest of Dean Co Const86.84%13.16%0.00%
Louth and Horncastle Co Const86.84%10.53%2.63%
Ludlow Co Const85.71%14.29%0.00%
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire Co Const84.38%15.63%0.00%


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